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Home Spain La Liga Barcelona — Villarreal

Predictions Barcelona vs Villarreal February 28, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Barcelona
Barcelona
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Sat 28 Feb · 15:15
4:1
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
W D L L W Away · last 5
Camp Nou · Barcelona Referee Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
Home Win · BAR
76%
Best 1.37
Draw
16%
Best 5.78
Away Win · VIL
9%
Best 6.73
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.97
Fair odds
6.40
book 6.97 · +8.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +8.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (76%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.6%
Odds 6.97
Show model details
Implied probability 14.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 8.7%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 41.4%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 77.1%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 97.5%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 90.8%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 22.9%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 9.2%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 2.5%
Odds 29.00
Show model details
Implied probability 3.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 34%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 66%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8.7%
Odds 6.25
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.69
Show model details
Implied probability 27.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
BAR – VIL @ 6.97
+8.9%
Edge
Forecast →