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Home Spain La Liga Alaves — Girona

Predictions Alaves vs Girona February 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Mon 23 Feb · 20:00
2:2
Full-time
Girona
Girona
L D D L D Away · last 5
Estadio de Mendizorroza · Vitoria-Gasteiz Referee Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
Home Win · ALA
36%
Best 2.45
Draw
29%
Best 2.97
Away Win · GIR
35%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.65
Fair odds
1.57
book 1.65 · +5.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 64% · EV +5.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (65%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 36.1%
Odds 2.41
Show model details
Implied probability 41.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 35.2%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28.7%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 39.1%
Odds 2.54
Show model details
Implied probability 39.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 60.9%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.2%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 79.8%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 20.2%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11.8%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 45.3%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 35.2%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 36.1%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ALA – GIR @ 1.65
+5.4%
Edge
Forecast →