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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Real Sociedad

Predictions Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad February 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Feb · 20:00
4:1
Full-time
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
L D D L D Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
Home Win · REA
73%
Best 1.33
Draw
18%
Best 5.60
Away Win · RSO
9%
Best 8.50
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.22
Fair odds
2.12
book 2.22 · +4.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 47% · EV +4.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (53%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.4%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.9%
Odds 5.70
Show model details
Implied probability 17.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 8.7%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 52.8%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 31.8%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.3%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 86%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 14%
Odds 6.10
Show model details
Implied probability 16.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.7%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 41.9%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.4%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8.7%
Odds 5.75
Show model details
Implied probability 17.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 91.4%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 26.6%
Odds 3.43
Show model details
Implied probability 29.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
REA – RSO @ 2.22
+4.7%
Edge
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