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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano

Predictions Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano February 1, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Sun 01 Feb · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee I. Diaz
Home Win · REA
77%
Best 1.25
Draw
17%
Best 6.55
Away Win · RAY
6%
Best 10.20
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.10
Fair odds
5.85
book 6.10 · +4.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 17% · EV +4.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (77%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 76.8%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.1%
Odds 6.10
Show model details
Implied probability 16.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 6.2%
Odds 12.00
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 45.1%
Odds 2.31
Show model details
Implied probability 43.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 54.9%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.8%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.3%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 53.2%
Odds 1.94
Show model details
Implied probability 51.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 46.8%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 76.8%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.2%
Odds 6.80
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.9%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 23.3%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – RAY @ 6.10
+4.3%
Edge
Forecast →