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Home Spain La Liga Athletic Club — Atletico Madrid

Predictions Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid December 6, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Home · last 5 W L L D L
Kick-off
Sat 06 Dec · 20:00
1:0
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
W L W W L Away · last 5
Referee Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
Home Win · BIL
21%
Best 2.86
Draw
27%
Best 3.18
Away Win · ATM
52%
Best 2.57
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 4.33
Fair odds
3.94
book 4.33 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 25% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (75%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 51.9%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.8%
Odds 3.44
Show model details
Implied probability 29.1%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 21.3%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 46.6%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 25.4%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 28.2%
Odds 3.15
Show model details
Implied probability 31.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.1%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 74.6%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.9%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 50.5%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 49.5%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 51.9%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 21.3%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 48.1%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 78.7%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
BIL – ATM @ 4.33
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →