Match Alaves vs Celta Vigo November 22, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.55 — +8.2% better than the market.

Alaves show solid home momentum with a strong defensive setup, but Celta Vigo bring a clear quality edge and recent winning form that could challenge the hosts. The home side's defensive discipline may keep the game tight, yet Celta's sharper attack and better overall strength hint at a competitive clash. Expect a moderately paced match with tactical battles in midfield and cautious probing from both sides.

Alaves' home defensive resilience
Celta's superior offensive quality and form
Balanced tempo favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.55 ✓ Cashed

AI 70% Implied 65% +0.55u

+55%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALA 4-4-2 · CEL 3-4-3

ALA · 4-4-2 3-4-3 · CEL

15 Boyé

Subs used · ALA

61'

Rebbach ↑ ·

Alena ↓

62'

Ibanez ↑ ·

Vicente ↓

81'

Guevara ↑ ·

Otto ↓

81'

Diaz ↑ ·

Suarez ↓

90'

Guridi ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

Subs used · CEL

66'

Mingueza ↑ ·

Rueda ↓

73'

Iglesias ↑ ·

Duran ↓

73'

Aidoo ↑ ·

Starfelt ↓

73'

Roman ↑ ·

Aspas ↓

83'

El Abdellaoui ↑ ·

Zaragoza ↓

📊 Statistics

ALA 0 – 1 CEL

52%

Possession (%)

48%

0.68

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.43

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

Jonny Otto

Yellow Card

▮

17'

▮

Javi Rodríguez

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

51'

▮

Javier Rueda

Yellow Card

55'

⚽

I. Aspas (P)

Penalty · 0–1

A. Rebbach ↓ · C. Alena ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

P. Ibanez ↓ · C. Vicente ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

66'

⇄

O. Mingueza ↓ · J. Rueda ↑

Substitution 1

Jon Pacheco

Yellow Card

▮

68'

73'

⇄

B. Iglesias ↓ · P. Duran ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

J. Aidoo ↓ · C. Starfelt ↑

Substitution 3

73'

⇄

M. Roman ↓ · I. Aspas ↑

Substitution 4

A. Guevara ↓ · Jonny Otto ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

M. Diaz ↓ · D. Suarez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

83'

⇄

J. El Abdellaoui ↓ · B. Zaragoza ↑

Substitution 5

J. Guridi ↓ · T. Martinez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Celta Vigo won 1–0 away at Alaves. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.43 to 0.68. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Aspas (55').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.31 units (Brier 0.187).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.91	—	53%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.66	—	60%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.42	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.14	—	41%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Home Win	2.64	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.84	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	70%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Away Win	3.10	—	41%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.42	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.00	—	33%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.45	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.18	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.23	—	80%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	89%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.70	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.31u	−8% ROI