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Home England Premier League Brighton — Newcastle

Predictions Brighton vs Newcastle October 18, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Sat 18 Oct · 14:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer, East Sussex Referee Craig Pawson, England
Home Win · BRI
45%
Best 2.91
Draw
26%
Best 3.44
Away Win · NEW
29%
Best 2.44
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.29
Fair odds
2.05
book 2.29 · +11.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
p 49% · EV +11.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (51%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 45.4%
Odds 2.71
Show model details
Implied probability 36.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 29%
Odds 2.71
Show model details
Implied probability 36.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 5 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 53.3%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 48.7%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 1 market
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
BRI – NEW @ 2.29
+11.5%
Edge
Forecast →