Match Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg May 16, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.53 — +8.8% better than the market.

Bundesliga Clash at Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin faces a tough challenge against FC Augsburg, who hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. The home side’s defensive solidity contrasts with Augsburg’s more potent attack, suggesting a tactical battle where Union’s compact block will be tested. Expect a moderately paced game with limited goal-scoring chances, as both teams have shown resilience but lack consistent finishing recently.

Union’s home defensive strength vs Augsburg’s attacking threat
Recent form favors Augsburg’s momentum
Moderate tempo likely, under 3.5 goals probable

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.53 ✗ Lost

AI 71% Implied 65% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

UNI 4-2-3-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1

UNI · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG

23 Ilić ⚽

Subs used · UNI

64'

Juranovic ↑ ·

Trimmel ↓

65'

Woo-Yeong ↑ ·

Ansah ↓

71'

Skarke ↑ ·

Burcu ↓

86'

Bogdanov ↑ ·

Burke ↓

86'

Querfeld ↑ ·

Ilic ↓

Subs used · AUG

55'

Massengo ↑ ·

Keitel ↓

55'

Ribeiro ↑ ·

Komur ↓

61'

Banks ↑ ·

Matsima ↓

61'

Pedersen ↑ ·

Wolf ↓

77'

Ogundu ↑ ·

Gregoritsch ↓

📊 Statistics

UNI 4 – 0 AUG

49%

Possession (%)

51%

3.18

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.54

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 4 – 0

A. Ilic

Assist · A. Schafer · 1–0

⚽

10'

O. Burke

Yellow Card

▮

24'

C. Trimmel

Yellow Card

▮

26'

A. Ilic

Assist · O. Burke · 2–0

⚽

42'

Half-time · 2 – 0

A. Schafer

Assist · L. Burcu · 3–0

⚽

54'

55'

⇄

H. Massengo ↓ · Y. Keitel ↑

Substitution 1

55'

⇄

R. Ribeiro ↓ · M. Komur ↑

Substitution 2

61'

⇄

N. Banks ↓ · C. Matsima ↑

Substitution 3

61'

⇄

M. Pedersen ↓ · M. Wolf ↑

Substitution 4

63'

▮

H. Massengo

Yellow Card

J. Juranovic ↓ · C. Trimmel ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓ · I. Ansah ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

A. Kemlein

Yellow Card

▮

70'

T. Skarke ↓ · L. Burcu ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

77'

⇄

U. Ogundu ↓ · M. Gregoritsch ↑

Substitution 5

D. Bogdanov ↓ · O. Burke ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

L. Querfeld ↓ · A. Ilic ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

Jeong Woo-Yeong

4–0

⚽

89'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Union Berlin beat FC Augsburg 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.18 to 0.54. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 11, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Ilic (10'), A. Ilic (42'), A. Schafer (54'), Jeong Woo-Yeong (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.37 units (Brier 0.241).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.92	1.91	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.52	2.30	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.80	3.05	41%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.20	3.00	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.90	1.75	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.02	1.91	40%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Home Win	2.69	2.66	29%	Cashed	+1.69	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.04	2.16	29%	Cashed	+1.04	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.53	1.46	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	6.49	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	22.00	20.83	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.44	1.34	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.36	1.34	60%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.59	1.59	52%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.01	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	4.04	4.00	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.11	1.07	80%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.37u	−14% ROI