Match Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund May 16, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.02 — +14.0% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage, despite mixed recent form for both sides. Werder Bremen's defensive solidity may be tested by Dortmund's sharper attack, but home momentum and a compact block could keep the scoreline tight. The pace hints at a moderately open game, with chances for both sides but a likely controlled tempo.

Dortmund's offensive threat vs Bremen's defense
Home side's recent resilience and tactical discipline
Moderate pace suggesting balanced chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 2.02 ✓ Cashed

AI 56% Implied 50% +1.02u

+102%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

WER 4-5-1 · DOR 3-4-2-1

WER · 4-5-1 3-4-2-1 · DOR

29 Musah

Subs used · WER

46'

Friedl ↑ ·

Pieper ↓

53'

Grull ↑ ·

Schmidt ↓

70'

Covic ↑ ·

Puertas ↓

70'

Mbangula ↑ ·

Musah ↓

90+3'

Bittencourt ↑ ·

Schmid ↓

Subs used · DOR

70'

Brandt ↑ ·

Beier ↓

70'

Chukwuemeka ↑ ·

Inacio ↓

83'

Adeyemi ↑ ·

Bellingham ↓

83'

Silva ↑ ·

Guirassy ↓

88'

Couto ↑ ·

Ryerson ↓

📊 Statistics

WER 0 – 2 DOR

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.42

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 0 – 2

Half-time · 0 – 0

M. Friedl ↓ · A. Pieper ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

M. Grull ↓ · I. Schmidt ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

53'

59'

⚽

S. Guirassy

Assist · J. Ryerson · 0–1

70'

⇄

J. Brandt ↓ · M. Beier ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⇄

C. Chukwuemeka ↓ · S. Inacio ↑

Substitution 2

P. Covic ↓ · C. Puertas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

S. Mbangula ↓ · S. Musah ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

70'

83'

⇄

K. Adeyemi ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⇄

F. Silva ↓ · S. Guirassy ↑

Substitution 4

88'

⇄

Y. Couto ↓ · J. Ryerson ↑

Substitution 5

L. Bittencourt ↓ · R. Schmid ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

90+5'

⚽

Y. Couto

Assist · K. Adeyemi · 0–2

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund won 2–0 away at Werder Bremen. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.86 to 0.42. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 9, 9 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

On the scoresheet: S. Guirassy (59'), Y. Couto (90+5').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -0.85 units (Brier 0.177).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.90	1.91	60%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Away Win	2.02	2.07	56%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.05	1.91	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.88	1.80	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.63	2.49	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.10	3.00	38%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
BTTS No	3.10	3.00	38%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.35	1.30	79%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	6.49	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.57	1.57	56%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.40	1.35	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.40	1.36	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.21	3.91	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.11	1.07	82%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Home Win	3.53	3.10	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−0.85u	−6% ROI