Match SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig May 16, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.50 — +8.6% better than the market.

RB Leipzig enter this clash with a clear quality edge and strong recent form, despite SC Freiburg's home momentum. Leipzig's potent attack faces a resilient Freiburg defense, promising tactical battles across the pitch. The home side's pressing and set-piece threat could challenge Leipzig's compact block, but Leipzig's offensive firepower and experience may tip the balance.

Leipzig's attacking edge vs Freiburg's defense
Freiburg's home pressing intensity
Recent form favors Leipzig's confidence

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.50 ✗ Lost

AI 72% Implied 67% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · LEI 4-3-3

FRE · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · LEI

31 Matanović ⚽

Subs used · FRE

60'

Grifo ↑ ·

Beste ↓

60'

Kubler ↑ ·

Hofler ↓

72'

Ogbus ↑ ·

Ginter ↓

72'

Holer ↑ ·

Manzambi ↓

86'

Philipp ↑ ·

Matanovic ↓

Subs used · LEI

63'

Baku ↑ ·

Henrichs ↓

63'

Nusa ↑ ·

Gruda ↓

73'

Gomis ↑ ·

Seiwald ↓

73'

Cardoso ↑ ·

Harder ↓

80'

Bakayoko ↑ ·

Diomande ↓

📊 Statistics

FRE 4 – 1 LEI

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.53

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.13

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 4 – 1

J. Beste

1–0

⚽

24'

I. Matanovic

Assist · J. Manzambi · 2–0

⚽

26'

33'

⚽

A. Ouedraogo

Assist · Y. Diomande · 2–1

Half-time · 2 – 1

M. Ginter

Assist · J. Makengo · 3–1

⚽

47'

V. Grifo ↓ · J. Beste ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

L. Kubler ↓ · N. Hofler ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

63'

⇄

R. Baku ↓ · B. Henrichs ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

A. Nusa ↓ · B. Gruda ↑

Substitution 2

B. Ogbus ↓ · M. Ginter ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

L. Holer ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

73'

⇄

T. Gomis ↓ · N. Seiwald ↑

Substitution 3

73'

⇄

Romulo Cardoso ↓ · C. Harder ↑

Substitution 4

D. Scherhant

Assist · I. Matanovic · 4–1

⚽

75'

77'

▮

C. Baumgartner

Yellow Card

80'

⇄

J. Bakayoko ↓ · Y. Diomande ↑

Substitution 5

M. Philipp ↓ · I. Matanovic ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg beat RB Leipzig 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.53 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: J. Beste (24'), I. Matanovic (26'), A. Ouedraogo (33'), M. Ginter (47'), D. Scherhant (75').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.95 units (Brier 0.209).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.38	2.58	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.65	1.62	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.45	2.30	41%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.99	1.97	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.66	1.49	51%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Home Win	2.80	2.50	28%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.16	1.93	28%	Cashed	+1.16	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.50	1.50	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	3.00	2.62	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.50	2.40	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.44	1.50	66%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.40	1.44	66%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	5.00	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	4.26	3.70	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.12	1.11	84%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 0.5	23.00	16.95	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.95u	−17% ROI