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Home Germany Germany Bundesliga RB Leipzig — FC St. Pauli

Predictions RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli May 9, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Sat 09 May · 13:30
2:1
Full-time
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
D L L L L Away · last 5
Referee Benjamin Brand, Germany
Home Win · LEI
75%
Best 1.33
Draw
18%
Best 6.10
Away Win · PAU
7%
Best 9.95
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 6.00
Fair odds
5.48
book 6.00 · +9.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 18% · EV +9.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (82%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 17.8%
Odds 5.94
Show model details
Implied probability 16.8%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 74.9%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 7.4%
Odds 9.85
Show model details
Implied probability 10.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 38.3%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 39.5%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 61.7%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 22.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.4%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 81.8%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 50.2%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 74.9%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 7.4%
Odds 6.80
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 25.2%
Odds 3.56
Show model details
Implied probability 28.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEI – PAU @ 6.00
+9.4%
Edge
Forecast →