Match 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli April 25, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.43 — +14.7% better than the market.

1. FC Heidenheim holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting a compact defensive setup to frustrate FC St. Pauli. Heidenheim's stronger offense faces a resilient St. Pauli defense, hinting at a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. Recent form favors Heidenheim's home momentum, while the expected pace is balanced, likely producing a tight, low-scoring affair.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Heidenheim's home rhythm vs St. Pauli's patchy form
Moderate tempo favors structured play over open attacking

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.43 ✗ Lost

AI 33% Implied 29% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEI 4-3-2-1 · PAU 3-4-2-1

HEI · 4-3-2-1 3-4-2-1 · PAU

11 Zivzivadze ⚽

Subs used · HEI

56'

Kerber ↑ ·

Beck ↓

85'

Niehues ↑ ·

Dorsch ↓

90+1'

Schimmer ↑ ·

Pieringer ↓

90+1'

Conteh ↑ ·

Zivzivadze ↓

90+1'

Ibrahimovic ↑ ·

Dinkci ↓

Subs used · PAU

46'

Smith ↑ ·

Rasmussen ↓

46'

Kaars ↑ ·

Fujita ↓

63'

Ritzka ↑ ·

Saliakas ↓

64'

Ceesay ↑ ·

Hountondji ↓

88'

Metcalfe ↑ ·

Sinani ↓

📊 Statistics

HEI 2 – 0 PAU

45%

Possession (%)

55%

1.44

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 2 – 0

B. Zivzivadze

Assist · J. Schoppner · 1–0

⚽

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

E. Smith ↓ · M. Rasmussen ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

M. Kaars ↓ · J. Fujita ↑

Substitution 2

L. Kerber ↓ · A. Beck ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

63'

⇄

L. Ritzka ↓ · M. Saliakas ↑

Substitution 3

64'

⇄

A. Ceesay ↓ · A. Hountondji ↑

Substitution 4

76'

▮

Martijn Kaars

Yellow Card

E. Dinkci

Assist · D. Ramaj · 2–0

⚽

82'

J. Niehues ↓ · N. Dorsch ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

85'

88'

⇄

C. Metcalfe ↓ · D. Sinani ↑

Substitution 5

S. Schimmer ↓ · M. Pieringer ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+1'

C. Conteh ↓ · B. Zivzivadze ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

A. Ibrahimovic ↓ · E. Dinkci ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

1. FC Heidenheim beat FC St. Pauli 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball.

On the scoresheet: B. Zivzivadze (3'), E. Dinkci (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.94 units (Brier 0.134).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.87	—	59%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
BTTS No	2.06	—	54%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
Home Win	2.38	—	46%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.93	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.70	—	46%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.15	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	72%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.43	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.53	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.95	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	—	78%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	89%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.35	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.29	—	67%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.28	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.94u	−23% ROI

Match 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli April 25, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.43 — +14.7% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled