Match RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin April 24, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.39 — +2.5% better than the market.

RB Leipzig enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Union Berlin. Their offensive firepower faces a less resilient Union defense, suggesting Leipzig's pressing and quick transitions could unlock chances. Meanwhile, Union's struggles on the road and patchy form hint at a tough outing.

Leipzig's home attacking edge against Union's defense
Recent form favors Leipzig's confidence
Likely moderate tempo with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.39 ✓ Cashed

AI 74% Implied 72% +0.39u

+39%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEI 4-3-3 · UNI 3-5-2

LEI · 4-3-3 3-5-2 · UNI

7 Nusa

Subs used · LEI

68'

Gruda ↑ ·

Cardoso ↓

68'

Harder ↑ ·

Ouedraogo ↓

79'

Bakayoko ↑ ·

Diomande ↓

79'

Henrichs ↑ ·

Baku ↓

90'

Gomis ↑ ·

Nusa ↓

Subs used · UNI

31'

Klaus ↑ ·

Ronnow ↓

59'

Ansah ↑ ·

Ilic ↓

60'

Juranovic ↑ ·

Trimmel ↓

60'

Kemlein ↑ ·

Haberer ↓

83'

Burcu ↑ ·

Schafer ↓

📊 Statistics

LEI 3 – 1 UNI

67%

Possession (%)

33%

4.19

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 3 – 1

M. Finkgrafe

1–0

⚽

22'

Romulo Cardoso

2–0

⚽

25'

31'

⇄

C. Klaus ↓ · F. Ronnow ↑

Substitution 1

Christoph Baumgartner

Yellow Card

▮

34'

Half-time · 2 – 0

59'

⇄

I. Ansah ↓ · A. Ilic ↑

Substitution 2

60'

⇄

J. Juranovic ↓ · C. Trimmel ↑

Substitution 3

60'

⇄

A. Kemlein ↓ · J. Haberer ↑

Substitution 4

R. Baku

Assist · Y. Diomande · 3–0

⚽

63'

B. Gruda ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

C. Harder ↓ · A. Ouedraogo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

78'

⚽

D. Doekhi

Assist · J. Juranovic · 3–1

J. Bakayoko ↓ · Y. Diomande ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

B. Henrichs ↓ · R. Baku ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

83'

⇄

L. Burcu ↓ · A. Schafer ↑

Substitution 5

84'

▮

Diogo Leite

Yellow Card

T. Gomis ↓ · A. Nusa ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.19 to 0.18. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 4, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

On the scoresheet: M. Finkgrafe (22'), Romulo Cardoso (25'), R. Baku (63'), D. Doekhi (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.49 units (Brier 0.099).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.69	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.70	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	55%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.36	—	41%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
BTTS No	2.06	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.39	—	74%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.09	—	92%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.55	—	63%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.11	—	74%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Draw	5.49	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	83%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.80	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.32	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	9.40	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.60	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.49u	−32% ROI