Match Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg April 26, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.46 — +3.8% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite recent mixed results. Their strong defensive shape and high offensive output contrast with Freiburg's more modest attack and leaky defense. Dortmund's pressing intensity and set-piece threat could exploit Freiburg's vulnerabilities, while the visitors' recent form shows resilience but may struggle to contain Dortmund's pace.

Home side's superior defensive solidity
Freiburg's challenge to break down compact blocks
Potential for a lively tempo given attacking profiles

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.46 ✓ Cashed

AI 71% Implied 68% +0.46u

+46%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · FRE 4-2-3-1

DOR · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · FRE

9 Guirassy ⚽

Subs used · DOR

74'

Svensson ↑ ·

Inacio ↓

84'

Silva ↑ ·

Guirassy ↓

84'

Chukwuemeka ↑ ·

Brandt ↓

88'

Ozcan ↑ ·

Bellingham ↓

89'

Albert ↑ ·

Beier ↓

Subs used · FRE

67'

Philipp ↑ ·

Matanovic ↓

67'

Beste ↑ ·

Grifo ↓

75'

Jung ↑ ·

Lienhart ↓

75'

Irie ↑ ·

Scherhant ↓

84'

Tarnutzer ↑ ·

Hofler ↓

📊 Statistics

DOR 4 – 0 FRE

61%

Possession (%)

39%

3.59

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.74

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 4 – 0

M. Beier

Assist · R. Bensebaini · 1–0

⚽

S. Guirassy

Assist · J. Brandt · 2–0

⚽

14'

R. Bensebaini

Assist · J. Ryerson · 3–0

⚽

31'

Half-time · 3 – 0

Jobe Bellingham

Yellow Card

▮

65'

67'

⇄

M. Philipp ↓ · I. Matanovic ↑

Substitution 1

67'

⇄

J. Beste ↓ · V. Grifo ↑

Substitution 2

D. Svensson ↓ · S. Inacio ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

74'

75'

⇄

A. Jung ↓ · P. Lienhart ↑

Substitution 3

75'

⇄

C. Irie ↓ · D. Scherhant ↑

Substitution 4

F. Silva ↓ · S. Guirassy ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

84'

C. Chukwuemeka ↓ · J. Brandt ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

⇄

R. Tarnutzer ↓ · N. Hofler ↑

Substitution 5

F. Silva

4–0

⚽

87'

S. Ozcan ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

M. Albert ↓ · M. Beier ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.59 to 0.74. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 7, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 0. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: M. Beier (8'), S. Guirassy (14'), R. Bensebaini (31'), F. Silva (87').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.88 units (Brier 0.119).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.65	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.45	—	40%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.55	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.15	—	44%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Home Win	1.46	—	71%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.12	—	90%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.58	—	62%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.95	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.14	—	71%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Draw	5.20	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.19	—	83%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	7.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.75	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.88u	−29% ROI