Match Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV April 18, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.18 — +14.0% better than the market.

Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV face off in a tight Bundesliga clash where home momentum slightly favors Bremen. Their defensive solidity contrasts with HSV's marginally better form, setting up a tactical battle. Bremen's home edge and higher expected goals hint at a controlled pace with limited chances.

Bremen's compact defense may stifle HSV's attack.
HSV's recent draws suggest resilience but limited firepower.
Moderate tempo likely, under 2.5 goals probable.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.18 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

WER 4-1-4-1 · HAM 3-4-1-2

WER · 4-1-4-1 3-4-1-2 · HAM

19 Milošević

Subs used · WER

61'

Grull ↑ ·

Milosevic ↓

67'

Bittencourt ↑ ·

Stage ↓

89'

Stark ↑ ·

Njinmah ↓

Subs used · HAM

66'

Otele ↑ ·

Gronbaek ↓

75'

Jatta ↑ ·

Muheim ↓

75'

Stange ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

83'

Downs ↑ ·

Capaldo ↓

📊 Statistics

WER 3 – 1 HAM

57%

Possession (%)

43%

1.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.58

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 1

J. Stage

Assist · Y. Sugawara · 1–0

⚽

37'

41'

⚽

R. Glatzel

Assist · N. Capaldo · 1–1

Olivier Deman

Yellow Card

▮

45'

▮

Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

J. Stage

Assist · C. Puertas · 2–1

⚽

57'

58'

▮

Miro Muheim

Yellow Card

M. Grull ↓ · J. Milosevic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

66'

⇄

P. Otele ↓ · A. Gronbaek ↑

Substitution 1

L. Bittencourt ↓ · J. Stage ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

Yukinari Sugawara

Yellow Card

▮

71'

Leonardo Bittencourt

Yellow Card

▮

73'

75'

⇄

B. Jatta ↓ · M. Muheim ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

O. Stange ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 3

79'

▮

Philip Otele

Red Card

Marco Grüll

Yellow Card

▮

82'

83'

⇄

D. Downs ↓ · N. Capaldo ↑

Substitution 4

89'

▮

Bakery Jatta

Yellow Card

N. Stark ↓ · J. Njinmah ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

89'

C. Puertas

Assist · R. Schmid · 3–1

⚽

90'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Werder Bremen beat Hamburger SV 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.73 to 0.58. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 11, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Stage (37'), R. Glatzel (41'), J. Stage (57'), C. Puertas (90'). Philip Otele was sent off in the 79' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.59 units (Brier 0.195).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.18	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.05	—	49%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.86	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.79	—	48%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.63	—	51%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	73%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.60	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.88	—	27%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.83	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.47	—	49%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Away Win	3.86	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.85	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	72%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.59u	−21% ROI

Match Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV April 18, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.18 — +14.0% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled