P
Prognosist
P
Home Germany Germany Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund — Bayer Leverkusen

Predictions Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen April 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 13:30
0:1
Full-time
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
L W W L D Away · last 5
Referee Deniz Aytekin, Germany
Home Win · DOR
57%
Best 2.00
Draw
23%
Best 3.90
Away Win · BAY
20%
Best 3.45
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.45
Fair odds
2.19
book 2.45 · +12.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 46% · EV +12.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (54%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 57.3%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 23.1%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 19.6%
Odds 3.74
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.2%
Odds 2.52
Show model details
Implied probability 39.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.8%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 85%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 19.6%
Odds 2.72
Show model details
Implied probability 36.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 42.8%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
DOR – BAY @ 2.45
+12.1%
Edge
Forecast →