Match FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.68 — +8.3% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.68 ✓ Cashed

AI 64% Implied 60% +0.68u

+68%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAI 3-1-4-2 · FRE 4-2-3-1

MAI · 3-1-4-2 4-2-3-1 · FRE

23 Becker

Subs used · MAI

62'

Widmer ↑ ·

Veratschnig ↓

62'

Amiri ↑ ·

Kawasaki ↓

74'

Caci ↑ ·

Mwene ↓

74'

Sieb ↑ ·

Nebel ↓

83'

Weiper ↑ ·

da Costa ↓

Subs used · FRE

46'

Lienhart ↑ ·

Ogbus ↓

64'

Beste ↑ ·

Irie ↓

64'

Treu ↑ ·

Kubler ↓

74'

Grifo ↑ ·

Scherhant ↓

83'

Makengo ↑ ·

Ginter ↓

📊 Statistics

MAI 0 – 1 FRE

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.63

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.57

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

33'

▮

Bruno Ogbus

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

P. Lienhart ↓ · B. Ogbus ↑

Substitution 1

47'

⚽

L. Holer

Assist · M. Ginter · 0–1

45+4'

▮

Maximilian Eggestein

Yellow Card

Nikolas Veratschnig

Yellow Card

▮

55'

S. Widmer ↓ · N. Veratschnig ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

N. Amiri ↓ · S. Kawasaki ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

64'

⇄

J. Beste ↓ · C. Irie ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⇄

P. Treu ↓ · L. Kubler ↑

Substitution 3

73'

▮

Lucas Höler

Yellow Card

A. Caci ↓ · P. Mwene ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

A. Sieb ↓ · P. Nebel ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

74'

⇄

V. Grifo ↓ · D. Scherhant ↑

Substitution 4

N. Weiper ↓ · D. da Costa ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

⇄

J. Makengo ↓ · M. Ginter ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg won 1–0 away at FSV Mainz 05. At half-time it was 0–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Holer (47').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.71 units (Brier 0.248).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.68	—	64%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.93	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	44%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.02	—	48%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.47	—	37%	Cashed	+1.47	Cashed
Home Win	2.36	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.62	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.65	—	37%	Cashed	+2.65	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	69%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.35	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	92%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	—	24%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Draw	3.35	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.71u	+10% ROI