Match Bayern München vs Union Berlin March 21, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.92 — +10.6% better than the market.

Bayern München enter this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a potent attack that outmatches Union Berlin’s defensive setup. Their recent form shows resilience and sharp finishing, while Union Berlin struggles to maintain consistency away. The home side’s pressing edge and superior quality gap suggest a dominant display, especially in a likely high-tempo game given the goal-scoring potential.

Bayern’s offensive firepower vs Union’s defense
Home crowd advantage fueling Bayern’s confidence
Union’s patchy away form limits their threat

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 1.92 ✓ Cashed

AI 58% Implied 52% +0.92u

+92%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · UNI 3-5-2

BAY · 4-2-3-1 3-5-2 · UNI

9 Kane ⚽

Subs used · BAY

61'

Guerreiro ↑ ·

Karl ↓

61'

Bischof ↑ ·

Upamecano ↓

71'

Ito ↑ ·

Min-Jae ↓

87'

Osmani ↑ ·

Goretzka ↓

87'

Cardozo ↑ ·

Gnabry ↓

Subs used · UNI

46'

Rothe ↑ ·

Nsoki ↓

46'

Ilic ↑ ·

Skarke ↓

61'

Kral ↑ ·

Kemlein ↓

61'

Woo-Yeong ↑ ·

Burcu ↓

76'

Juranovic ↑ ·

Trimmel ↓

📊 Statistics

BAY 4 – 0 UNI

74%

Possession (%)

26%

5.53

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 4 – 0

Dayot Upamecano

Yellow Card

▮

30'

▮

Leopold Querfeld

Yellow Card

37'

▮

Danilho Doekhi

Yellow Card

M. Olise

1–0

⚽

43'

S. Gnabry

2–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

T. Rothe ↓ · S. Nsoki ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

A. Ilic ↓ · T. Skarke ↑

Substitution 2

H. Kane

Assist · K. Laimer · 3–0

⚽

49'

R. Guerreiro ↓ · L. Karl ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

T. Bischof ↓ · D. Upamecano ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

⇄

A. Kral ↓ · A. Kemlein ↑

Substitution 3

61'

⇄

Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓ · L. Burcu ↑

Substitution 4

S. Gnabry

4–0

⚽

67'

H. Ito ↓ · Kim Min-Jae ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

76'

⇄

J. Juranovic ↓ · C. Trimmel ↑

Substitution 5

E. Osmani ↓ · L. Goretzka ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

M. Cardozo ↓ · S. Gnabry ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Bayern München beat Union Berlin 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 74% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 5.53 to 0.21. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 31 shots to 5, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Olise (43'), S. Gnabry (45'), H. Kane (49'), S. Gnabry (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.39 units (Brier 0.072).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	1.92	—	58%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.97	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	2.02	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.91	—	44%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Draw	9.06	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.05	—	96%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Home Win	1.20	—	82%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.05	—	82%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.35	—	77%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.11	—	90%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	—	98%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Double Chance X2	5.57	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.45	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	8.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	17.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	29.00	—	2%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	9.20	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.39u	−38% ROI

Match Bayern München vs Union Berlin March 21, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.92 — +10.6% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled