Match FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg February 7, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.81 — +10.3% better than the market.

FSV Mainz 05 hosts FC Augsburg in a Bundesliga clash where Augsburg holds a slight quality edge. Mainz’s home advantage is moderate, with a compact defensive setup that could frustrate Augsburg’s modest attacking threat. Recent form shows Mainz with a slight momentum edge, but Augsburg’s resilience and ability to grind results away suggest a tight contest.

Mainz’s solid defense vs Augsburg’s average offense
Augsburg’s away resilience vs Mainz’s home pressing
Moderate pace expected, favoring cautious buildup

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.81 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAI 3-4-2-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1

MAI · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG

20 Tietz

Subs used · MAI

63'

Becker ↑ ·

Silas ↓

81'

Potulski ↑ ·

Kohr ↓

81'

Mwene ↑ ·

Widmer ↓

81'

Nebel ↑ ·

Amiri ↓

88'

Maloney ↑ ·

Jae-Sung ↓

Subs used · AUG

46'

Zesiger ↑ ·

Banks ↓

57'

Jakic ↑ ·

Rexhbecaj ↓

57'

Kade ↑ ·

Wolf ↓

57'

Ribeiro ↑ ·

Gregoritsch ↓

81'

Rieder ↑ ·

Fellhauer ↓

📊 Statistics

MAI 2 – 0 AUG

39%

Possession (%)

61%

2.31

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.70

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 0

N. Amiri (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

C. Zesiger ↓ · N. Banks ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⇄

K. Jakic ↓ · E. Rexhbecaj ↑

Substitution 2

57'

⇄

A. Kade ↓ · M. Wolf ↑

Substitution 3

57'

⇄

R. Ribeiro ↓ · M. Gregoritsch ↑

Substitution 4

60'

▮

Alexis Claude-Maurice

Yellow Card

S. Becker ↓ · Silas ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

78'

▮

Anton Kade

Yellow Card

N. Amiri (P)

Penalty · 2–0

⚽

80'

Nadiem Amiri

Yellow Card

▮

81'

K. Potulski ↓ · D. Kohr ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

81'

P. Mwene ↓ · S. Widmer ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

P. Nebel ↓ · N. Amiri ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

⇄

F. Rieder ↓ · R. Fellhauer ↑

Substitution 5

L. Maloney ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Sheraldo Becker

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.31 to 0.70. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 6 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Amiri (8'), N. Amiri (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.01 units (Brier 0.171).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.81	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.05	—	50%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	2.19	—	47%	Cashed	+1.19	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.91	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.63	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.72	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.13	—	39%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
Away Win	3.65	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	72%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.33	—	64%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.90	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	92%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	74%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.55	—	39%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.30	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.01u	−24% ROI

Match FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg February 7, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.81 — +10.3% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled