Match FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV January 23, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.29 — +9.1% better than the market.

FC St. Pauli hosts Hamburger SV in a tightly contested derby with a slight edge to the visitors based on overall quality and recent form. St. Pauli's defensive solidity faces a probing HSV attack, but the home side's compact block and home momentum could frustrate their rivals. The pace is likely moderate, favoring a tactical battle rather than an open game.

Home defensive resilience vs away offensive pressure
Close recent form with slight away advantage
Moderate tempo suggests fewer high-scoring chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.29 ✓ Cashed

AI 85% Implied 78% +0.29u

+29%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAU 3-4-3 · HAM 4-2-3-1

PAU · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · HAM

28 Lage

Subs used · PAU

46'

Jones ↑ ·

Kaars ↓

65'

Irvine ↑ ·

Dzwigala ↓

65'

Sinani ↑ ·

Pereira Lage ↓

Subs used · HAM

14'

Balde ↑ ·

Rossing-Lelesiit ↓

68'

Dompe ↑

68'

Glatzel ↑ ·

Downs ↓

68'

Philippe ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

87'

S. Lokonga ↑ ·

Vieira ↓

📊 Statistics

PAU 0 – 0 HAM

43%

Possession (%)

57%

0.26

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.35

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

10 · 0 – 0

Adam Dźwigała

Yellow Card

▮

14'

⇄

F. Balde ↓ · A. Rossing-Lelesiit ↑

Substitution 1

24'

▮

Nicolai Remberg

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

R. Jones ↓ · M. Kaars ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

J. Irvine ↓ · A. Dzwigala ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

D. Sinani ↓ · M. Pereira Lage ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

68'

⇄

J. Dompe ↓ ·

Substitution 2

68'

⇄

R. Glatzel ↓ · D. Downs ↑

Substitution 3

68'

⇄

R. Philippe ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 4

87'

⇄

A. S. Lokonga ↓ · F. Vieira ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.97 units (Brier 0.235).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 1.5	2.55	—	42%	Cashed	+1.55	Cashed
BTTS No	1.74	—	60%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.62	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.75	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.19	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.92	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.02	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.95	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	—	85%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.44	—	72%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.52	—	68%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Draw	3.20	—	29%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Home Win	3.01	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	57%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Under 0.5	6.75	—	15%	Cashed	+5.75	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.14	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.50	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.97u	+17% ROI