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Home Austria Bundesliga Red Bull Salzburg — Sturm Graz

Predictions Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz May 3, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Austria   /   Bundesliga Value pick inside
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
Home · last 5 W L D L L
Kick-off
Sun 03 May · 15:00
1:1
Full-time
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
D D D W W Away · last 5
Referee Harald Lechner, Austria
Home Win · SAL
63%
Best 1.66
Draw
22%
Best 4.20
Away Win · STU
15%
Best 4.70
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.05
Fair odds
4.54
book 5.05 · +11.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 22% · EV +11.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (78%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 22.2%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 15.3%
Odds 4.70
Show model details
Implied probability 21.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.63
Show model details
Implied probability 61.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 44.6%
Odds 2.39
Show model details
Implied probability 41.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22%
Odds 5.05
Show model details
Implied probability 19.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.46
Show model details
Implied probability 68.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.8%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.2%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.39
Show model details
Implied probability 41.8%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 15.3%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 37.5%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
SAL – STU @ 5.05
+11.2%
Edge
Forecast →