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Home World UEFA Champions League Paris Saint Germain — Bayern München

Predictions Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München April 28, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Home · last 5 W W W D D
Kick-off
Tue 28 Apr · 19:00
5:4
Full-time
Bayern München
Bayern München
W W W L D Away · last 5
Referee S. Scharer
Home Win · PSG
42%
Best 2.46
Draw
24%
Best 4.01
Away Win · BAY
34%
Best 2.78
Value pick
Away Win
@ 2.92
Fair odds
2.91
book 2.92 · +0.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 34% · EV +0.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (41%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 41.5%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 34.4%
Odds 2.92
Show model details
Implied probability 34.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 24.2%
Odds 4.01
Show model details
Implied probability 24.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 61.9%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 38.1%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 41.8%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 23.7%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.5%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 34.4%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 41.5%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 65.6%
Odds 1.46
Show model details
Implied probability 68.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
PSG – BAY @ 2.92
+0.4%
Edge
Forecast →