Match Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis April 26, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.57 — +9.8% better than the market.

Atromitos hold a clear quality edge and a solid home advantage, likely to press their defensive solidity against Asteras Tripolis’ less potent attack. Recent form is balanced but Atromitos’ sharper defensive shape and home momentum could limit chances. Expect a compact game with few goals given the cautious pace suggested by odds.

Home defensive resilience vs away attack
Balanced recent form but home edge in pressure
Low-scoring tempo likely with tight marking

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.57 ✗ Lost

AI 70% Implied 64% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATR 4-2-3-1 · AST 3-4-3

ATR · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · AST

32 Baku

13 Triantafyllopoulos

📊 Statistics

ATR 2 – 1 AST

60%

Possession (%)

40%

1.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.24

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.42 units (Brier 0.181).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.70	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.63	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.95	—	56%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.77	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.03	—	36%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.35	—	30%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.57	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	6.75	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.22	—	83%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Draw	3.14	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	—	55%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.18	—	87%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	78%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.94	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.37	—	56%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Away Win	4.00	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.30	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.42u	−26% ROI