Match Atromitos vs Larisa April 18, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.07 — +14.4% better than the market.

Atromitos holds a clear quality edge and a home advantage that suggests control over the match tempo. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Larisa's struggles to score consistently, hinting at a tight game. Recent form favors Atromitos, who have shown resilience and the ability to grind out results, while Larisa's away form and defensive lapses could be exploited.

Home momentum with a pressing edge
Compact defensive block likely to frustrate visitors
Lower pace expected, favoring a cautious approach

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 2.07 ✓ Cashed

AI 55% Implied 48% +1.07u

+107%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATR 4-2-3-1 · AEL 5-4-1

ATR · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · AEL

32 Baku

📊 Statistics

ATR 3 – 2 AEL

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.95

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.75

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Atromitos beat Larisa 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 10, 7 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.48 units (Brier 0.280).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.80	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.65	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.07	—	55%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.85	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.30	—	34%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.58	—	27%	Cashed	+1.58	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.54	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	7.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.19	—	88%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	83%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	3.20	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.52	—	54%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.40	—	55%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.11	—	80%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.02	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.26	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.25	—	12%	Cashed	+4.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.48u	+3% ROI