Match Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen March 4, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.34 — +6.6% better than the market.

Bayer Leverkusen enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a stronger attack, likely to challenge Hamburger SV's defense at the Volksparkstadion. Despite HSV's recent home momentum and slightly better form, Leverkusen's offensive firepower and overall team strength suggest they can control the game tempo and create chances.

Leverkusen's superior attacking threat against HSV's defense
Home side's resilience and recent positive results
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over frantic pressing

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.34 ✓ Cashed

AI 80% Implied 75% +0.34u

+34%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAM 3-4-2-1 · BAY 3-4-2-1

HAM · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · BAY

19 Downs

Subs used · HAM

29'

Mikelbrencis ↑ ·

Jatta ↓

65'

Torunarigha ↑ ·

Omari ↓

65'

Stange ↑ ·

Philippe ↓

65'

Dompe ↑ ·

Downs ↓

81'

S. Lokonga ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

Subs used · BAY

71'

Tillman ↑ ·

Terrier ↓

80'

Poku ↑ ·

Culbreath ↓

90'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Maza ↓

📊 Statistics

HAM 0 – 1 BAY

37%

Possession (%)

63%

1.33

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.93

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

11 · 0 – 1

W. Mikelbrencis ↓ · B. Jatta ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

29'

40'

▮

Aleix García

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

J. Torunarigha ↓ · W. Omari ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

O. Stange ↓ · R. Philippe ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

J. Dompe ↓ · D. Downs ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

65'

71'

⇄

M. Tillman ↓ · M. Terrier ↑

Substitution 1

73'

⚽

C. Kofane

Assist · I. Maza · 0–1

80'

⇄

E. Poku ↓ · M. Culbreath ↑

Substitution 2

A. S. Lokonga ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

90'

⇄

E. Fernandez ↓ · I. Maza ↑

Substitution 3

90+5'

▮

Exequiel Palacios

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Bayer Leverkusen won 1–0 away at Hamburger SV. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.93 to 1.33. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 2.

On the scoresheet: C. Kofane (73').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.08 units (Brier 0.215).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.11	—	55%	Cashed	+1.11	Cashed
BTTS No	2.47	—	42%	Cashed	+1.47	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.32	—	43%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.71	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.85	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.70	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.34	—	80%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.52	—	64%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.58	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.53	—	55%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.22	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.75	—	20%	Cashed	+3.75	Cashed
Draw	3.80	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	16.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.60	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.08u	+0% ROI