Match FC St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig January 27, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.95 — +14.1% better than the market.

RB Leipzig enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a stronger attack, likely to challenge FC St. Pauli's compact defensive setup. Despite St. Pauli's home momentum, Leipzig's offensive threat and better recent form suggest they can control the game tempo. Expect a tactical battle where Leipzig's pressing and forward runs test St. Pauli's resilience.

Leipzig's attacking edge against St. Pauli's defense
Home side's recent mixed form and defensive solidity
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.95 ✗ Lost

AI 58% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAU 3-4-2-1 · LEI 4-3-3

PAU · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · LEI

26 Jones

Subs used · PAU

67'

Kaars ↑ ·

Jones ↓

76'

Rasmussen ↑ ·

Fujita ↓

76'

Irvine ↑ ·

Sands ↓

76'

Pereira Lage ↑ ·

Sinani ↓

88'

Ceesay ↑ ·

Saliakas ↓

Subs used · LEI

64'

Harder ↑ ·

Cardoso ↓

85'

Banzuzi ↑ ·

Baumgartner ↓

85'

Gomis ↑ ·

Nusa ↓

90+4'

Henrichs ↑ ·

Diomande ↓

📊 Statistics

PAU 1 – 1 LEI

46%

Possession (%)

54%

1.45

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.09

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

49'

▮

Christoph Baumgartner

Yellow Card

64'

⇄

C. Harder ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⚽

Y. Diomande

0–1

M. Kaars ↓ · R. Jones ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

M. Rasmussen ↓ · J. Fujita ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

J. Irvine ↓ · J. Sands ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

M. Pereira Lage ↓ · D. Sinani ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

85'

⇄

E. Banzuzi ↓ · C. Baumgartner ↑

Substitution 2

85'

⇄

T. Gomis ↓ · A. Nusa ↑

Substitution 3

A. Ceesay ↓ · M. Saliakas ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

M. Kaars (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

90'

90+4'

⇄

B. Henrichs ↓ · Y. Diomande ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

FC St. Pauli and RB Leipzig drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 7, 5 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: Y. Diomande (66'), M. Kaars (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.32 units (Brier 0.174).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.95	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	—	51%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS No	2.19	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.86	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.72	—	51%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.99	—	42%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.41	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.20	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.27	—	83%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	72%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.30	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	92%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	74%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Draw	3.85	—	24%	Cashed	+2.85	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.13	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.20	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.32u	−14% ROI