Match Lille vs Aston Villa March 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks AH Home +1 at 1.30 — +10.0% better than the market.

Lille vs Aston Villa looks like a tight European tie, but the home side gets a slight lean from stronger recent rhythm, a steadier home environment and a more reliable attacking flow in league play. Aston Villa still carry real threat on transitions and have enough quality to stay in the game, so this does not project as a one-sided match. The most likely scenario is a competitive contest with Lille avoiding defeat more often than not, while the goal pattern points toward a live chance of two or three total goals rather than a completely open shootout.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · AH Home +1

AH Home +1 @ 1.30 ✗ Lost

AI 90% Implied 79% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1

LIL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST

9 Giroud

📊 Statistics

LIL 0 – 1 AST

49%

Possession (%)

51%

0.40

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.47

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Aston Villa won 1–0 away at Lille. At half-time it was 0–0.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 8 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.80 units (Brier 0.265).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 8 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
AH Home 0	2.20	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.10	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home +1	1.30	—	90%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.40	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.60	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.10	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home +2	1.10	—	97%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	—	48%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	91%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	—	74%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.90	—	51%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.40	—	62%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.80	—	48%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Away Win	2.50	—	33%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 8 L	−2.80u	−18% ROI