Match Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart January 10, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.00 — +14.7% better than the market.

Bayer Leverkusen holds a clear quality edge over VfB Stuttgart, boosted by a solid home momentum and a pressing edge in attack. Their offensive strength outmatches Stuttgart's defense, suggesting they can create key chances. Both teams show signs of scoring, but Leverkusen's compact block and home confidence could tilt the balance.

Home attacking threat vs away defensive resilience
Recent form favors Leverkusen's consistency
Moderate pace expected, supporting tactical control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BAY 3-4-2-1 · STU 4-2-3-1

BAY · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · STU

11 Terrier

Subs used · BAY

46'

Bade ↑ ·

Belocian ↓

46'

Poku ↑ ·

Tella ↓

66'

Hofmann ↑ ·

Fernandez ↓

66'

Sarco ↑ ·

Terrier ↓

82'

Lucas ↑ ·

Grimaldo ↓

Subs used · STU

72'

Jeltsch ↑ ·

Fuhrich ↓

79'

Assignon ↑ ·

Vagnoman ↓

79'

Arevalo ↑ ·

Leweling ↓

88'

Andres ↑ ·

Nartey ↓

88'

Demirovic ↑ ·

Undav ↓

📊 Statistics

BAY 1 – 4 STU

57%

Possession (%)

43%

1.95

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.60

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 1 – 4

⚽

J. Leweling

Assist · D. Undav · 0–1

29'

⚽

M. Mittelstadt (P)

Penalty · 0–2

Mark Flekken

Yellow Card

▮

38'

▮

Jamie Leweling

Yellow Card

45'

⚽

J. Leweling

Assist · D. Undav · 0–3

45'

⚽

D. Undav

Assist · C. Fuhrich · 0–4

Half-time · 0 – 4

L. Bade ↓ · J. Belocian ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

E. Poku ↓ · N. Tella ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

J. Hofmann ↓ · E. Fernandez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

66'

A. Sarco ↓ · M. Terrier ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

66'

A. Grimaldo (P)

Penalty · 1–4

⚽

66'

Loïc Badé

Yellow Card

▮

70'

72'

⇄

F. Jeltsch ↓ · C. Fuhrich ↑

Substitution 1

77'

▮

Finn Jeltsch

Yellow Card

Alejandro Grimaldo

Yellow Card

▮

78'

79'

⇄

L. Assignon ↓ · J. Vagnoman ↑

Substitution 2

79'

⇄

Jeremy Arevalo ↓ · J. Leweling ↑

Substitution 3

Aleix García

Yellow Card

▮

80'

Lucas ↓ · A. Grimaldo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

88'

⇄

C. Andres ↓ · N. Nartey ↑

Substitution 4

88'

⇄

E. Demirovic ↓ · D. Undav ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart won 4–1 away at Bayer Leverkusen. At half-time it was 0–4.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.60 to 1.95. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Leweling (7'), M. Mittelstadt (29'), J. Leweling (45'), D. Undav (45'), A. Grimaldo (66').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.16 units (Brier 0.241).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.00	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.30	—	45%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.74	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.79	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.67	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.92	—	43%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.80	—	20%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.33	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	—	66%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.47	—	65%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.49	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.16	—	85%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Draw	4.15	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	21.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.66	—	20%	Cashed	+2.66	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.16u	−7% ROI

Match Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart January 10, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Home Win at 2.00 — +14.7% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled