Match Celta Vigo vs PAOK February 26, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 3.70 — +10.0% better than the market.

Celta Vigo vs PAOK prediction
This looks like a classic clash of styles where the away side are better built to control the key moments. PAOK’s defensive structure and game management travel well, and they look more comfortable playing without the ball and striking at the right time. Celta have enough quality to compete at home, but breaking down an organised opponent may be hard work. A tight game script is likely, with PAOK having the clearer route to a result and a strong chance to avoid defeat.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 3.70 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 27% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CEL 3-4-2-1 · PAO 4-2-3-1

CEL · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · PAO

7 Iglesias

📊 Statistics

CEL 1 – 0 PAO

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.32

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.35

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

92%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Celta Vigo beat PAOK 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.32 to 0.35. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 4, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 2.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 8 landed and 7 missed, for a net -0.90 units (Brier 0.217).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 8 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.90	—	50%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Away Win	4.80	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.00	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.30	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.70	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	—	30%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.90	—	54%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	93%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.30	—	73%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.90	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.90	—	50%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.10	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.20	—	60%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.40	—	70%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 7 L	−0.90u	−6% ROI