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Home World UEFA Champions League Qarabag — Newcastle

Predictions Qarabag vs Newcastle February 18, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Qarabag
Qarabag
Home · last 5 L W L L L
Kick-off
Wed 18 Feb · 17:45
1:6
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
D W W D L Away · last 5
Referee Espen Eskas, Norway
Home Win · KAR
16%
Best 7.24
Draw
25%
Best 5.10
Away Win · NEW
59%
Best 1.40
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.34
Fair odds
2.22
book 2.34 · +5.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 45% · EV +5.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (55%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 25%
Odds 5.13
Show model details
Implied probability 19.5%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 16%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Top pick
Probability 59%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality High
Totals 6 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 55%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 92%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
Over 1.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 45%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 66%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 34%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 54%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 46%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 1 market
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 59%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality High
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Value pick
Probability 41%
Odds 3.02
Show model details
Implied probability 33.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 84%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
KAR – NEW @ 2.34
+5.0%
Edge
Forecast →