Match Galatasaray vs Juventus February 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.04 — +10.0% better than the market.

Galatasaray come into this matchup with the clearer edge in momentum and a sturdier overall profile at home. Juventus are usually well-organised without the ball, but their chance creation can look blunt against disciplined, front-foot defending. That points to a tight game where clear openings should be at a premium, making a cautious Galatasaray result angle more attractive than chasing a wide-open shootout. A draw remains a realistic route, but the home side look better placed to avoid defeat and nick it if the match opens late.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.04 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GAL 4-2-3-1 · JUV 4-3-3

GAL · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · JUV

45 Osimhen

📊 Statistics

GAL 5 – 2 JUV

62%

Possession (%)

38%

2.96

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.13

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Galatasaray beat Juventus 5–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.96 to 1.13. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 7, 9 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 2.96 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 6 landed and 7 missed, for a net -1.62 units (Brier 0.235).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 6 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	1.79	—	70%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Home Win	3.60	—	38%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.60	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.04	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	92%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	—	72%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	—	48%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.34	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.72	—	44%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.55	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.18	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	6 W · 7 L	−1.62u	−12% ROI