Match SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund December 14, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.25 — +8.4% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger overall profile and a potent attack that challenges Freiburg's defense. Despite Freiburg's better recent form and home momentum, Dortmund's pressing and defensive solidity could limit scoring opportunities. Expect a tactical battle where Dortmund's offensive threat meets Freiburg's resilience.

Dortmund's superior quality and attacking edge
Freiburg's recent home form and compact block
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.25 ✗ Lost

AI 33% Implied 31% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · DOR 3-4-2-1

FRE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · DOR

9 Höler ⚽

Subs used · FRE

76'

Grifo ↑ ·

Jung ↓

76'

Matanović ↑ ·

Günter ↓

Subs used · DOR

56'

Groß ↑ ·

Silva ↓

78'

Svensson ↑ ·

Chukwuemeka ↓

78'

Beier ↑ ·

Guirassy ↓

90'

Süle ↑ ·

Can ↓

90'

Adeyemi ↑ ·

Couto ↓

📊 Statistics

FRE 1 – 1 DOR

57%

Possession (%)

43%

1.51

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.93

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 1

Johan Manzambi

Yellow Card

▮

11'

▮

Yan Couto

Yellow Card

31'

⚽

Ramy Bensebaini

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

53'

▮

Jobe Bellingham

Red Card

56'

⇄

Pascal Groß ↓ · Fábio Silva ↑

Substitution 1

Maximilian Eggestein

Yellow Card

▮

72'

Lucas Höler

Assist · Christian Günter · 1–1

⚽

75'

Vincenzo Grifo ↓ · Anthony Jung ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

76'

Igor Matanović ↓ · Christian Günter ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

78'

⇄

Daniel Svensson ↓ · Carney Chukwuemeka ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

Maximilian Beier ↓ · Serhou Guirassy ↑

Substitution 3

83'

▮

Julian Ryerson

Yellow Card

90'

⇄

Niklas Süle ↓ · Emre Can ↑

Substitution 4

90'

⇄

Karim Adeyemi ↓ · Yan Couto ↑

Substitution 5

Lukas Kübler

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.51 to 0.93. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 9, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Ramy Bensebaini (31'), Lucas Höler (75'). Jobe Bellingham was sent off in the 53' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.71 units (Brier 0.166).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.25	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.89	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.68	—	58%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS No	2.28	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	—	44%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.61	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.73	—	47%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.44	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.37	—	78%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	67%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	79%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.65	—	26%	Cashed	+2.65	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.20	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.30	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.44	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.71u	−16% ROI

Match SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund December 14, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.25 — +8.4% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled