Match Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen December 7, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.52 — +10.1% better than the market.

Werder Bremen enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting stronger overall metrics and a better recent form trend. Despite Hamburger SV's home momentum, Bremen's offensive threat against a leaky home defense suggests they can exploit gaps. The match hints at a moderate tempo, with both sides likely cautious but Bremen's pressing edge could tilt control.

Werder's superior quality and form advantage
Hamburg's defensive vulnerabilities at home
Moderate pace favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.52 ✗ Lost

AI 72% Implied 66% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAM 3-4-3 · WER 4-2-3-1

HAM · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · WER

7 Dompé

Subs used · HAM

59'

Muheim ↑ ·

Soumahoro ↓

59'

Konigsdorffer ↑ ·

Philippe ↓

83'

Gocholeishvili ↑ ·

Jatta ↓

83'

Poulsen ↑ ·

Vieira ↓

90+2'

Balde ↑ ·

Dompe ↓

Subs used · WER

69'

Njinmah ↑ ·

Topp ↓

79'

Boniface ↑ ·

Puertas ↓

88'

Mbangula ↑ ·

Grull ↓

📊 Statistics

HAM 3 – 2 WER

54%

Possession (%)

46%

1.37

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.72

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 3 – 2

32'

▮

Jens Stage

Yellow Card

45'

⚽

J. Stage

Assist · R. Schmid · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Luka Vušković

Yellow Card

▮

56'

M. Muheim ↓ · A. Soumahoro ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

R. Konigsdorffer ↓ · R. Philippe ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

62'

▮

Keke Topp

Yellow Card

A. S. Lokonga

1–1

⚽

63'

69'

▮

Marco Grüll

Yellow Card

69'

⇄

J. Njinmah ↓ · K. Topp ↑

Substitution 1

74'

▮

Marco Friedl

Yellow Card

L. Vuskovic

Assist · F. Vieira · 2–1

⚽

75'

78'

⚽

J. Njinmah

Assist · R. Schmid · 2–2

79'

⇄

V. Boniface ↓ · C. Puertas ↑

Substitution 2

G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · B. Jatta ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

Y. Poulsen ↓ · F. Vieira ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

Y. Poulsen

Assist · M. Muheim · 3–2

⚽

84'

88'

⇄

S. Mbangula ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 3

F. Balde ↓ · J. Dompe ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

90+4'

▮

Karim Coulibaly

Yellow Card

90+5'

▮

Romano Schmid

Yellow Card

Nicolai Remberg

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Hamburger SV beat Werder Bremen 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.37 to 0.72. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.37 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Stage (45'), A. S. Lokonga (63'), L. Vuskovic (75'), J. Njinmah (78'), Y. Poulsen (84').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.10 units (Brier 0.237).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.35	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.55	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.27	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.74	—	49%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Home Win	2.37	—	34%	Cashed	+1.37	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.75	—	28%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.74	—	34%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.52	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.10	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.10	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.43	—	59%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.59	—	53%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.23	—	73%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.10u	−18% ROI

Match Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen December 7, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.52 — +10.1% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled