Match Dundee Utd vs Livingston April 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.45 — +10.3% better than the market.

Dundee Utd hold a clear quality edge at Tannadice Park, backed by a stronger defensive setup and a slight home momentum from recent results. Their offensive threat matches well against Livingston's less robust defense, suggesting control in key phases.

Home side's compact block limits away chances
Livingston's recent struggles dampen their attacking rhythm
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

Expect a tactical battle with Dundee Utd pressing their advantage, likely keeping the scoreline tight and favoring a low-scoring outcome.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.45 ✗ Lost

AI 76% Implied 69% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DUN 3-4-2-1 · LIV 3-4-2-1

DUN · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · LIV

36 Watters

📊 Statistics

DUN 3 – 2 LIV

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

64%

Pass Accuracy (%)

56%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Dundee Utd beat Livingston 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

For accuracy, the hosts completed 64% of their passes. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.09 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.24 units (Brier 0.184).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.10	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.64	—	65%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.15	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.32	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.84	—	43%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.75	—	45%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	87%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.24	—	65%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.82	—	24%	Cashed	+1.82	Cashed
Draw	4.20	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	84%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	—	68%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Away Win	5.75	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.11	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.24u	−25% ROI