Match Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk February 21, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.36 — +9.5% better than the market.

Heart Of Midlothian hold a clear quality edge and home momentum at Tynecastle Park, backed by a solid defensive record and a pressing style that challenges Falkirk's less potent attack. Despite Falkirk's recent form showing signs of resilience, the home side's attacking threat against a vulnerable away defense suggests a controlled game with limited goals.

Home's compact block and set-piece threat
Falkirk's struggle to break down organized defenses
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.36 ✓ Cashed

AI 81% Implied 74% +0.36u

+36%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEA 4-2-3-1 · FAL 4-2-3-1

HEA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · FAL

10 Braga

📊 Statistics

HEA 1 – 0 FAL

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.13

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.44

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

71%

Pass Accuracy (%)

71%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Heart Of Midlothian beat Falkirk 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.13 to 0.44. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.40 units (Brier 0.128).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.00	—	59%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	—	59%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Home Win	1.67	—	64%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.25	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.93	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.88	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.00	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	—	81%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	—	34%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	87%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.27	—	64%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Draw	4.01	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	82%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.31	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.90	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.40u	−14% ROI

Match Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.36 — +9.5% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled