Match Kilmarnock vs Motherwell November 22, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.36 — +10.2% better than the market.

Motherwell arrive at Rugby Park with a clear quality edge, boasting stronger overall metrics and a slightly better recent form trend. Kilmarnock’s home edge is modest, but their defensive solidity could keep things tight against an away side that has a pressing advantage upfront. Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances as both sides show signs of cautious play.

Motherwell’s offensive edge challenges Kilmarnock’s defense
Home side’s compact block may restrict goal flow
Recent form suggests a tight contest with low scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.36 ✗ Lost

AI 81% Implied 74% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

KIL 3-4-3 · MOT 4-2-3-1

KIL · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · MOT

11 Kiltie

📊 Statistics

KIL 1 – 3 MOT

41%

Possession (%)

59%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Motherwell won 3–1 away at Kilmarnock. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 12, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.78 units (Brier 0.235).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.93	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.52	—	48%	Cashed	+1.52	Cashed
BTTS No	2.16	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.81	—	48%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.62	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	46%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.96	—	40%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.21	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.42	—	75%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.36	—	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.75	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.06	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	86%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.31	—	64%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	19%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.78u	−10% ROI