Match Lille vs SC Freiburg January 29, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.92 — +10.0% better than the market.

Lille hosts SC Freiburg in a Europa League clash where recent form favors the visitors, who bring strong momentum with multiple wins. Lille’s home edge is moderate but their recent struggles suggest a compact defensive approach might be key. The match hints at a tactical battle with both sides likely cautious, reflected in balanced odds and a probable low-scoring affair.

Freiburg’s better form and confidence on the road
Lille’s need to stabilize defensively at home
Odds suggest a tight game with limited goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 3.92 ✗ Lost

AI 28% Implied 26% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LIL 4-4-2 · FRE 4-2-3-1

LIL · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · FRE

10 Haraldsson

📊 Statistics

LIL 1 – 0 FRE

65%

Possession (%)

35%

1.63

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.41

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Lille beat SC Freiburg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.63 to 0.41. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 4, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.92 units (Brier 0.168).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.96	—	60%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	—	56%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.87	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.06	—	46%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.98	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.78	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.78	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	—	81%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	—	36%	Cashed	+2.75	Cashed
Away Win	3.92	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	72%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.48	—	46%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Draw	3.62	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	81%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.31	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.28	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.92u	−11% ROI