Match Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa January 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 3.68 — +10.0% better than the market.

Fenerbahce come into this one in strong rhythm and look more stable across both phases, especially when they can set the tempo and play on the front foot. Aston Villa still have enough quality to threaten in transition, but the overall matchup leans toward the home side controlling more of the key moments. Goals are a realistic expectation, yet the most likely script is a competitive game where Fenerbahce avoid defeat and edge the balance over 90 minutes.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 3.68 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 27% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FEN 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1

FEN · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST

10 Durán

📊 Statistics

FEN 0 – 1 AST

63%

Possession (%)

37%

0.89

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.45

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Aston Villa won 1–0 away at Fenerbahçe. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.45 to 0.89. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.67 units (Brier 0.275).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.81	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.51	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.64	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.38	—	42%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Draw	3.68	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.88	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.16	—	45%	Cashed	+1.16	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	66%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	60%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Away Win	2.74	—	30%	Cashed	+1.74	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.96	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.00	—	30%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.67u	−11% ROI