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Home World UEFA Europa League FC Porto — Malmo FF

Predictions FC Porto vs Malmo FF December 11, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W D L
Kick-off
Thu 11 Dec · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
L L L L L Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Rohit Saggi, Norway
Home Win · POR
80%
Best 1.20
Draw
14%
Best 6.45
Away Win · MAL
6%
Best 13.50
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.30
Fair odds
4.65
book 5.30 · +14.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 22% · EV +14.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (79%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 14.4%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Top pick
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality High
Away Win
Probability 5.9%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 44.6%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 21.5%
Odds 5.30
Show model details
Implied probability 18.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 67%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 94.5%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
Under 0.5
Probability 5.5%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78.5%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 33%
Odds 2.62
Show model details
Implied probability 38.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 64.2%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 35.8%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
AH Away 0
Probability 5.9%
Odds 7.20
Show model details
Implied probability 13.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.1%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 20.3%
Odds 4.68
Show model details
Implied probability 21.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
POR – MAL @ 5.30
+14.0%
Edge
Forecast →