Match PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis December 7, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.39 — +11.3% better than the market.

PAOK arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a strong defensive setup and a notable quality edge over Aris Thessalonikis. Their recent form shows resilience, while Aris struggles to convert chances despite a decent defensive effort. The tactical matchup favors PAOK's pressing and compact block, likely limiting Aris' attacking threats.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive challenges
PAOK's recent winning streak adds confidence
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.39 ✗ Lost

AI 80% Implied 72% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAO 4-2-3-1 · ARI 4-2-2-2

PAO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-2-2 · ARI

7 Giakoumakis

📊 Statistics

PAO 3 – 1 ARI

65%

Possession (%)

35%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 83% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 9, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.69 units (Brier 0.200).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.01	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.62	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.88	—	42%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.02	—	38%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.39	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.30	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.52	—	69%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.80	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.13	—	90%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.16	—	69%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Draw	4.30	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	86%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	—	65%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Away Win	7.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	—	20%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.42	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.69u	−22% ROI