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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Aston Villa

Predictions Manchester City vs Aston Villa May 24, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 15:00
1:2
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee A. Madley
Home Win · MCI
75%
Best 1.38
Draw
17%
Best 6.00
Away Win · AST
8%
Best 9.50
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.30
Fair odds
6.00
book 6.30 · +5.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 17% · EV +5.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (75%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 16.7%
Odds 6.30
Show model details
Implied probability 15.9%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.3%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 8%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 54.4%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 45.6%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.3%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 14.6%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 85.4%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 41.4%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.3%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 24.7%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MCI – AST @ 6.30
+5.0%
Edge
Forecast →