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Home England Premier League Aston Villa — Liverpool

Predictions Aston Villa vs Liverpool May 15, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Fri 15 May · 19:00
4:2
Full-time
Liverpool
Liverpool
W L D L D Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee C. Kavanagh
Home Win · AST
25%
Best 3.02
Draw
24%
Best 3.56
Away Win · LIV
51%
Best 2.48
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.66
Fair odds
2.45
book 2.66 · +8.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 41% · EV +8.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (57%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 51.2%
Odds 2.33
Show model details
Implied probability 42.9%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 24.9%
Odds 3.02
Show model details
Implied probability 33.1%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 23.9%
Odds 3.91
Show model details
Implied probability 25.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 68.5%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 46.7%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 31.5%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21.2%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 53.3%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.9%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.1%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 76.5%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.8%
Odds 2.66
Show model details
Implied probability 37.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 51.2%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 24.9%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
AST – LIV @ 2.66
+8.5%
Edge
Forecast →