Match Newcastle vs West Ham May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.73 — +8.5% better than the market.

Newcastle holds a clear quality edge over West Ham, especially defensively, which could be pivotal at St. James' Park. Despite recent mixed form, Newcastle's home momentum and stronger defensive solidity suggest they can control the game's pace. West Ham's attack faces a tough test against a compact and disciplined backline, while Newcastle's offensive threat may exploit West Ham's defensive vulnerabilities.

Home defensive strength offers a pressing edge
West Ham's attack struggles against solid defenses
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.73 ✗ Lost

AI 63% Implied 58% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NEW 4-2-3-1 · WES 3-4-2-1

NEW · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · WES

18 Osula ⚽

Subs used · NEW

53'

Willock ↑ ·

Tonali ↓

75'

Murphy ↑ ·

Barnes ↓

75'

Burn ↑ ·

Woltemade ↓

85'

Elanga ↑ ·

Trippier ↓

85'

Wissa ↑ ·

Osula ↓

Subs used · WES

26'

Castellanos ↑ ·

Todibo ↓

63'

Pablo ↑ ·

Wan-Bissaka ↓

63'

Kante ↑ ·

Soucek ↓

📊 Statistics

NEW 3 – 1 WES

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.70

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 3 – 1

N. Woltemade

Assist · H. Barnes · 1–0

⚽

15'

W. Osula

Assist · J. Ramsey · 2–0

⚽

19'

26'

⇄

T. Castellanos ↓ · J. Todibo ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 2 – 0

J. Willock ↓ · S. Tonali ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

53'

59'

▮

T. Soucek

Yellow Card

63'

⇄

Pablo ↓ · A. Wan-Bissaka ↑

Substitution 2

63'

⇄

M. Kante ↓ · T. Soucek ↑

Substitution 3

W. Osula

Assist · J. Willock · 3–0

⚽

65'

67'

▮

M. Diouf

Yellow Card

69'

⚽

T. Castellanos

Assist · M. Hermansen · 3–1

J. Murphy ↓ · H. Barnes ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

D. Burn ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

80'

▮

M. Kante

Yellow Card

L. Hall

Yellow Card

▮

83'

A. Elanga ↓ · K. Trippier ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Y. Wissa ↓ · W. Osula ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Newcastle beat West Ham 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 0.88. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Woltemade (15'), W. Osula (19'), W. Osula (65'), T. Castellanos (69').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.45 units (Brier 0.140).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.73	1.62	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.17	2.20	54%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.63	2.50	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.63	1.69	54%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.28	2.30	37%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.77	1.67	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.50	2.25	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.88	2.64	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.37	1.38	78%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	5.05	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	1.50	59%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.44	1.44	59%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 0.5	20.00	16.95	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	3.84	3.80	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	1.13	80%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Away Win	3.39	3.00	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.45u	−26% ROI