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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Brentford

Predictions Manchester City vs Brentford May 9, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sat 09 May · 16:30
3:0
Full-time
Brentford
Brentford
L W L D D Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee M. Salisbury
Home Win · MCI
73%
Best 1.39
Draw
18%
Best 5.78
Away Win · BRE
10%
Best 8.00
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 7.00
Fair odds
6.37
book 7.00 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 16% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (84%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.6%
Odds 5.75
Show model details
Implied probability 17.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 9.5%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 55.5%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 44.5%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.9%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.7%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 84.3%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.9%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 9.5%
Odds 5.90
Show model details
Implied probability 17%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.5%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 27.1%
Odds 3.16
Show model details
Implied probability 31.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MCI – BRE @ 7.00
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →