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Home England Premier League Burnley — Brighton

Predictions Burnley vs Brighton April 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Burnley
Burnley
Home · last 5 L L D L D
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 14:00
0:2
Full-time
Brighton
Brighton
W L W L L Away · last 5
Turf Moor · Burnley Referee T. Bramall
Home Win · BUR
16%
Best 5.00
Draw
23%
Best 4.20
Away Win · BRI
62%
Best 1.65
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 14.00
Fair odds
12.20
book 14.00 · +14.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 8% · EV +14.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (92%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 62%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.6%
Odds 4.19
Show model details
Implied probability 23.9%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 15.5%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 52.3%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 47.7%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 73.2%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 27.4%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 26.8%
Odds 2.92
Show model details
Implied probability 34.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.2%
Odds 14.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.8%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 72.6%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 50.4%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.7%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 62%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0
Probability 15.5%
Odds 3.46
Show model details
Implied probability 28.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 38%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 84.5%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
BUR – BRI @ 14.00
+14.8%
Edge
Forecast →