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Home England Premier League Arsenal — Bournemouth

Predictions Arsenal vs Bournemouth April 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Arsenal
Arsenal
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 11:30
1:2
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D W W D D Away · last 5
Emirates Stadium · London Referee M. Oliver
Home Win · ARS
71%
Best 1.44
Draw
20%
Best 4.63
Away Win · BOU
9%
Best 6.93
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.70
Fair odds
2.48
book 2.70 · +9.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 40% · EV +9.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (60%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 70.6%
Odds 1.49
Show model details
Implied probability 67.1%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 20.1%
Odds 4.90
Show model details
Implied probability 20.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 9.3%
Odds 7.99
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 40.4%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 62.2%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 37.8%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 82.1%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 17.9%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.9%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Value pick
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 42.3%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 70.6%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 9.3%
Odds 5.75
Show model details
Implied probability 17.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.7%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 29.4%
Odds 2.87
Show model details
Implied probability 34.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
ARS – BOU @ 2.70
+9.0%
Edge
Forecast →