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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Groningen — Excelsior

Predictions Groningen vs Excelsior May 2, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Groningen
Groningen
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Sat 02 May · 16:45
2:3
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
Euroborg · Groningen Referee Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands
Home Win · GRO
62%
Best 1.69
Draw
22%
Best 4.32
Away Win · EXC
15%
Best 4.75
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.50
Fair odds
5.07
book 5.50 · +8.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 20% · EV +8.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (80%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 62.4%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 22.3%
Odds 4.32
Show model details
Implied probability 23.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 15.3%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 62.7%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 41.6%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 37.3%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 58.4%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.7%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.6%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.4%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.3%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 42.2%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 62.4%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 15.3%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 37.6%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
GRO – EXC @ 5.50
+8.5%
Edge
Forecast →