Match Heracles vs Ajax April 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.55 — +11.4% better than the market.

Ajax enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage, despite both sides showing mixed recent form. Heracles' defensive solidity faces a stern test against Ajax's sharper attack, which has been more consistent. The home side's struggle to convert chances contrasts with Ajax's ability to exploit defensive gaps, suggesting a likely away dominance.

Ajax's superior overall strength and offensive edge
Heracles' recent home form lacks momentum
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical control over wild open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.55 ✗ Lost

AI 44% Implied 39% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HER 4-2-3-1 · AJA 4-3-3

HER · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · AJA

25 Zeefuik

📊 Statistics

HER 0 – 3 AJA

40%

Possession (%)

60%

1.25

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Ajax won 3–0 away at Heracles. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.92 to 1.25. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.20 units (Brier 0.105).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.62	—	66%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.55	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.64	—	65%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
BTTS No	2.34	—	44%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.40	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.35	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.19	—	87%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.55	—	56%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.25	—	66%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.60	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.18	—	79%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Home Win	5.40	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.20u	−31% ROI