P
Prognosist
P
Home Netherlands Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar — Fortuna Sittard

Predictions AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard April 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 16:45
2:0
Full-time
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
D L L W L Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar Referee Richard Martens, Netherlands
Home Win · ALK
73%
Best 1.29
Draw
18%
Best 5.88
Away Win · SIT
9%
Best 9.00
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 6.75
Fair odds
6.17
book 6.75 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 16% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (84%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.4%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.9%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 8.7%
Odds 8.25
Show model details
Implied probability 12.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 58%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 42%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 36.2%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 63.8%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 16.2%
Odds 6.75
Show model details
Implied probability 14.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 83.8%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.8%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.2%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.4%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8.7%
Odds 6.25
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 26.6%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALK – SIT @ 6.75
+9.5%
Edge
Forecast →