Match Heracles vs Excelsior March 20, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.50 — +10.1% better than the market.

Heracles face Excelsior in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form, hinting at a pressing advantage. Heracles' defensive solidity contrasts with Excelsior's less effective offense, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The match may lean towards a cautious tempo, with both sides struggling for consistency and goals recently.

Excelsior's form and quality edge offer a subtle upper hand.
Heracles' defense could frustrate the visitors' attack.
Expect a measured pace with tight midfield control.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.50 ✓ Cashed

AI 73% Implied 67% +0.50u

+50%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HER 4-2-3-1 · EXC 4-1-4-1

HER · 4-2-3-1 4-1-4-1 · EXC

70 Hrustić

📊 Statistics

HER 1 – 1 EXC

50%

Possession (%)

50%

1.52

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.03

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

72%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Heracles and Excelsior drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.95 units (Brier 0.151).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.63	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.20	—	53%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.03	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.70	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.72	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.87	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.50	—	73%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Away Win	2.89	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.54	—	69%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.57	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	—	57%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	53%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.85	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.45	—	27%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	72%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.95u	−17% ROI